Preparing for 2025: Insights from China's Central Economic Work Conference - HUBFX 外贸英欧美加本地收款账户 | 满足36个币种的收款需求

中国年度中央经济工作会议即将召开

2024年12月9日，01:48 AM

中国年度中央经济工作会议定于本周召开，预计将持续三天。这是一场闭门会议，汇聚了众多高层官员，包括各部长、中央银行行长、省级 governors 及国有金融和工业巨头的高管们。会议旨在制定明年的主要政策目标和具体任务。

在此次经济工作会议上，领导人将评估国内的各项挑战，包括疲软的房地产市场、地方政府债务、投资者信心不足以及高企的青年失业率。此外，会议还将为应对特朗普第二任期内的美国关税等外部压力做好准备。

政策制定者们旨在通过加强支持来稳定经济增长，强调财政调整、改革以及社会保障变革、户籍制度改革和私人经济促进法等措施，以提升商业信心。尽管近期出台了一些支持政策，但对于是否会推出额外的财政刺激措施依然存在怀疑，市场对可能的失望感到担忧。预计到2025年，财政赤字将强化至3.5%，并加强反周期措施。

中央银行的承诺包括实施支持性的货币政策，确保流动性，降低融资成本，并稳定房地产及资本市场。对于推动消费和经济稳定而言，房地产领域的稳定被视为至关重要，因此将优先采取长期措施而非短期刺激，如消费券发放。

尽管特朗普的关税威胁仍在，分析人士认为，国内需求疲软及金融稳定风险在2025年将对中国经济产生更大的影响。具体经济目标将于3月份的全国人民代表大会上公布。

值得注意的是，惠誉最近下调了对2025年和2026年中国经济增长的预测。这一动态显示了市场对中国经济前景的持续关注和谨慎态度。

随着中国年度中央经济工作会议的召开，外界期待政策制定者们能提出有效的解决方案，以应对当前的经济挑战，重振市场信心。
As we approach December 2024, attention turns to China’s annual central economic work conference, which will convene this week for a closed-door session of up to three days. This pivotal event brings together hundreds of high-ranking officials, including ministers, provincial governors, and executives from state-owned financial and industrial enterprises, to outline critical policy objectives and actionable tasks for the upcoming year.

During the conference, Chinese leaders will assess a myriad of domestic challenges that the economy faces. These challenges include a struggling property market, escalating local government debt, declining investor confidence, and notably high youth unemployment rates. Additionally, external pressures persist, particularly in the form of tariffs imposed by the U.S. during former President Donald Trump’s administration.

In response to these factors, policymakers are expected to prioritize stabilizing economic growth through intensified support measures. Focal points will include fiscal adjustments, comprehensive reforms, and new legislation aimed at promoting the private economy to revitalize business confidence.

Despite the introduction of recent supportive policies, skepticism abounds regarding the efficacy of further fiscal stimulus. Concerns that additional measures may ultimately disappoint the markets linger, with expectations rising for a stronger fiscal deficit projected to reach 3.5% by 2025. Furthermore, enhanced countercyclical measures are anticipated to provide support in challenging economic conditions.

On the monetary side, the central bank has pledged to maintain supportive policies aimed at ensuring adequate liquidity, lowering financing costs, and stabilizing both property and capital markets. In this context, stabilizing the property sector emerges as a crucial strategy to foster consumption and bolster overall economic stability. The focus during this conference appears to be on longer-term measures rather than immediate fixes, such as consumption vouchers.

While the threat of tariffs continues to loom large, analysts predict that weak domestic demand coupled with potential financial stability risks will exert a more profound influence on China’s economy through 2025. Specific economic targets and further strategic outlines will be confirmed during the National People’s Congress in March.

This crucial meeting not only sets the tone for China’s economic trajectory but also signals to both domestic and international players the government’s commitment to comprehensive reform and stability in a challenging global environment.
# 2024年度中国中央经济工作会议：政策目标与挑战分析

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