法国11月最终服务业PMI数据分析:46.9 vs 45.7初值

2024年12月4日 08:50 AM

近日发布的数据显示,法国11月的最终服务业PMI为46.9,高于初值的45.7,但仍然远低于10月份的49.2。这一数据表明,法国服务业的需求在经历了过去一年中最大的降幅,同时商业信心降至四年半来的低点。这种情况对经济前景无疑带来了压力。

HCOB的分析指出:“夏季时法国服务业PMI的积极信号已经一去不复返,部分归因于奥运会的影响。如今,该行业正受到政治不确定性的困扰。11月的需求急剧下滑,为2025年的初期带来了负面信号。”分析还提到,国际订单的减少速度明显高于国内订单,尤其是11月法国服务业的国际需求降幅,创下四年来的新高。

尽管第四季度需求显著降温,但投入成本仍在上升。企业报告称,劳动力成本增加,这归因于就业人数的增加和薪资的上涨。工会活动、强有力的员工保护以及技术工人短缺等因素,都是导致这一现象的可能原因。与前一个月相比,11月的就业人数略有上升,但如果需求持续下降,未来可能会出现裁员的局面。

法国经济的疲软似乎在一定程度上是自我造成的,政治局势的动荡使得法国服务公司对未来的展望变得不乐观。自从马克龙总统在6月份宣布提前选举以来,HCOB未来活动指数已下降了十个点,降至四年半以来的最低水平。这充分反映出在预算僵局的背景下,商业信心是多么脆弱。如果米歇尔·巴尔尼耶的少数政府因预算问题而崩溃,进一步的政治不确定性只会加剧这种局面。结合当前的经济状况和需求放缓,企业信心低迷的原因也就不言而喻了。

本篇文章由Justin Low撰写,来源于www.forexlive.com。
December 04, 2024 at 08:50 AM

Recent data shed light on the troubling landscape of France’s service sector, revealing a Composite PMI of 45.9 compared to the previous figure of 49.2. While this revision is an improvement over the preliminary estimate of 44.8, it starkly contrasts with the more favorable conditions witnessed in October, where the PMI stood at 48.1.

Significantly, the French services sector has experienced its sharpest decline in demand over the past year, coupled with a dramatic drop in business confidence, descending to a four-and-a-half year low. “The positive signals from the HCOB PMI for the French service sector observed during the summer, partially attributed to the Olympics, are no longer evident,” the HCOB comments. This decline is further compounded by ongoing political uncertainty, which has hindered growth prospects.

In November, demand fell sharply, presenting a worrying outlook for early 2025. The HCOB PMIs indicate that the contraction in international order intakes is outpacing the reduction in domestic demand, with foreign demand for French services witnessing its steepest decline in four years.

Despite the noted cooling of demand, input prices continue to escalate. Companies are confronted with rising labor costs, which stem from increased employment and salary adjustments. Contributing factors include robust union activities, strong worker protections, and a notable shortage of skilled labor. Although November saw a slight uptick in employment compared to October, the prolonged trend of declining demand could soon lead to layoffs in early 2025.

The downturn in France’s service sector appears to be partially self-inflicted, largely due to the current political climate. Since President Macron announced snap elections in June, the HCOB Future Activity Index has plummeted ten points, marking its lowest level in over four years. This decline underscores the fragility of business sentiment amidst escalating political uncertainty, particularly if Michel Barnier’s minority government were to collapse over ongoing budgetary disputes.

In light of the broader economic climate and the cooling of demand, it is unsurprising that business confidence has reached such lows. Stakeholders and analysts alike will need to keenly monitor these developments to navigate the complexities facing France’s service sector in the months ahead.

This article was authored by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The post France November final services PMI 46.9 vs 45.7 prelim appeared first on HUBFX | Global Accounts | FX Risk Management.


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