Market Insights: USD/JPY and Global Economic Trends on December 4, 2024

欧洲外汇市场新闻总结：USD/JPY持续上涨，ADP数据即将公布

2024年12月4日下午12:39

在今天的欧洲早盘交易中，市场虽然没有出现重要的新闻，但波动却相对明显。美元总体保持稳定，尤其是USD/JPY在突破150.00后，持续上涨并触及151.00，日内涨幅已达到1%。这一价格动作受到了本周技术性反弹的推动，且支撑位于其100日移动平均线之上。此外，10年期国债收益率的上扬至4.26%也对美元产生了支持。

其他主要货币较美元而言保持轻微变化，唯独澳大利亚元和新西兰元表现疲弱。由于第三季度GDP报告的不及预期，澳元承压，AUD/USD在早盘中一度跌至0.6410，随后略微反弹至0.6450，但市场空头压力依旧，现价在0.6406附近，跌幅超过1%。同时，昨天对人民币的压力也对澳元构成了负面影响。

鉴于法国政府即将面临的不信任投票，欧元的表现值得关注，此前市场对此将有反应。

股票市场方面，欧股在新一个月的交易中表现亮眼，各指数全面上涨。德国DAX指数顺利突破20000点，继续攀升到创纪录的新高。同时，标普500指数期货也创下新高，日内上涨0.3%，达到6080点，牛市情绪如潮水般席卷市场。

在商品市场上，整体市场情绪趋于平静，投资者期待本周美国劳动力市场数据带来更多线索。接下来，ADP就业数据将成为市场的焦点。

本篇文章由Justin Low撰写，更多内容请访问www.forexlive.com。
As of December 4, 2024, the financial landscape presents an intriguing narrative, particularly centered on the USD/JPY currency pair, which has made impressive strides today. The pair surged above the 151.00 mark, reflecting a 1% increase on the day, highlighting strong dollar performance amidst a technical rebound.

In recent trading sessions, the USD/JPY has benefited from a combination of factors including a bounce in Treasury yields, which have climbed to 4.26%. This uptick in yields has supported the dollar’s strength against major currencies, with the exception of the antipodeans such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars. The Australian dollar, in particular, faced downward pressure following a weaker Q3 GDP report.

Despite a broader appreciation of the dollar, other currencies are experiencing mixed sentiments. The Australian dollar continued to be a laggard, with AUD/USD tested down to as low as 0.6406 during the day.

Meanwhile, significant political developments are unfolding in France, as the government faces a no-confidence vote today, which could have implications for the euro. Analysts are closely monitoring this situation, as a shift in the political landscape may impact currency trading dynamics toward the close of the session.

From an economic perspective, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) officials, including Vujčić and Rehn, conveyed a more dovish outlook regarding policy easing, suggesting that the December decision may not be arduous. Concurrently, the Bank of England (BOE) Governor Bailey anticipates the possibility of four rate cuts next year, contingent on the economic outlook.

Amidst these developments, global markets appear to be reacting positively. European equities are on the rise, with indices expanding their gains and a noteworthy performance from the DAX as it approaches new record highs. The S&P 500 futures also echo this optimism, up 0.3% and reaching for record levels.

As commodities trade finds its rhythm, gold remains relatively flat at $2,644.00, while WTI crude oil dipped slightly to $69.82. Cryptocurrency markets, particularly Bitcoin, also reflect stability at $96,039, amidst cautious sentiments ahead of the upcoming US labor market data.

In summary, today’s financial developments underscore a compelling convergence of currency movements, economic forecasts, and geopolitical factors that are likely to shape market sentiments leading into the remainder of the week. Investors and analysts will be keen to see how these dynamics unfold as further economic indicators, including the ADP employment report, are set to be released.

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