HUBFX每周市场展望：2024年10月7日-11日 🌍📊 #市场展望 #外汇市场

2024 年 10 月 6 日
-人民币

进入10月的第二周，全球市场将迎来多个关键事件，这些事件可能对市场情绪产生重大影响。无论是欧元区的零售数据，还是各大央行的会议，交易者都需密切关注宏观经济数据、央行决策以及不断变化的地缘政治因素。

在HUBFX，我们本周的重点将放在美国、欧元区、日本和新西兰的经济发展，尤其是这些地区的重要货币政策决定、通胀数据和就业报告。

本周关注的关键事件 📅

以下是HUBFX密切关注的主要事件和数据发布，这些因素可能对外汇、大宗商品和股票产生显著影响：

10月7日，星期一：

欧元区零售销售数据：零售数据将显示消费者信心和支出趋势，这对于当前的通胀压力和增长放缓的背景下至关重要。如果数据弱于预期，可能会进一步增强对欧洲央行更激进降息的呼声。

10月8日，星期二：

日本平均现金收入（同比）：预计日本9月平均现金收入将同比增长3.1%，低于之前的3.6%。对于日本央行而言，工资增长是实现其通胀目标的重要指标。然而，央行目前可能不会因为这一数据立即采取行动，他们将继续观察价格和金融市场的发展。
澳大利亚储备银行会议纪要：澳洲央行的最新会议纪要将揭示中国刺激措施和澳洲货币政策调整如何影响经济。尽管澳洲央行已经转向更为中性的立场，但通胀压力和中国需求仍是澳元交易者关注的焦点。
美国NFIB小型企业乐观指数：这是衡量美国企业信心的重要指标，尽管经济存在不确定性，企业信心仍然保持韧性。强劲的数据可能会支持美元走强，而低于预期的数据则可能打击市场对美国经济前景的信心。

10月9日，星期三：

新西兰储备银行政策决定：市场普遍预计新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）将降息50个基点，将官方现金利率（OCR）降至4.75%。如此激进的降息是由于该国面临的增长放缓和通胀压力。对于外汇市场来说，如此幅度的降息可能会对纽元施加下行压力，特别是如果央行提供的前瞻性指引显示未来还会有更多的降息。
美联储会议纪要：市场将密切关注纪要内容，以了解美联储的下一步行动。在通胀压力有所缓解的背景下，会议纪要可能会为未来的降息预期提供更多线索。

10月10日，星期四：

日本生产者价格指数（PPI）：此数据将显示生产者的输入成本是上升还是下降，这对日本的通胀压力是一个重要的信号。如果PPI低于预期，可能会强化日本央行维持宽松货币政策的立场。
欧洲央行会议纪要：投资者将密切关注会议纪要，以判断欧洲央行是否会再次降息。鉴于欧元区通胀有所缓解，但经济活动依然疲软，央行可能会准备进一步的货币宽松政策。
美国CPI和失业救济申领数据：美国通胀数据将成为本周的焦点之一。分析师预计CPI整体增长0.1%，核心CPI增长0.2%。与此同时，失业救济申领数据将提供就业市场的最新情况。这些数据将共同影响市场对美联储未来政策的预期。
新西兰制造业PMI：该数据将展示新西兰制造业的健康状况。如果PMI继续收缩，可能会加剧市场对新西兰储备银行持续宽松政策的预期。

10月11日，星期五：

英国GDP数据：英国GDP数据将提供有关该国经济健康状况的重要线索。由于通胀高企和消费者信心疲软，英国经济面临多重挑战。强劲的GDP数据可能会支撑英镑，而疲弱的数据则可能为进一步的**英国央行（BoE）**降息提供依据。
加拿大劳动力市场报告：加拿大就业数据将展示在利率上升的背景下，该国劳动力市场是否依然稳健。强劲的就业数据可能会支撑加元，特别是在油价上涨的背景下。
美国PPI和密歇根大学消费者信心指数：美国生产者价格指数（PPI）将提供生产层面的通胀压力线索，而消费者信心指数将衡量美国消费者的消费前景。这两者都是美联储政策决定的重要参考。
加拿大央行商业前景调查：该调查将提供有关加拿大商业信心的最新动态，全球经济的不确定性对其产生了影响。乐观的调查结果可能会支持加元，尤其是在加拿大央行政策前景的背景下。

本周的市场主题 🌍

1. 央行决策：聚焦新西兰储备银行

本周的焦点将是新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）的利率决策。市场预计央行将降息50个基点，以应对疲弱的增长和通胀。如果央行如期降息，我们预计纽元将进一步走软，尤其是在美元走强、美国经济韧性依旧的情况下。

HUBFX认为，如果RBNZ传递出鸽派信号，可能会推动NZD/USD跌破关键支撑位，特别是在美元和美国经济表现强劲的情况下。

2. 美国通胀和就业市场数据

本周的美国CPI和失业救济申领数据将是评估通胀是否进一步降温和就业市场是否保持稳健的重要指标。CPI数据的任何意外变化都可能改变市场对美联储未来政策路径的预期。

HUBFX预计，如果通胀继续放缓，市场可能会进一步预期2025年初降息，这可能会对美元构成压力。然而，强劲的就业数据可能会对美元形成支撑，抵消部分通胀减缓的影响。

3. 中国对全球市场的影响

中国的刺激政策及其对全球市场的潜在影响将继续成为本周的主要主题。黄金周假期期间中国房地产市场的积极表现表明，近期的政策措施可能正在发挥作用。中国的经济复苏将对大宗商品和与大宗商品相关的货币（如澳元和加元）产生重要影响。

HUBFX将密切关注中国房地产市场的复苏进程，以及这是否会带来对原材料的需求增加，进而支撑全球经济增长。

HUBFX每周交易策略 ⚖️

随着本周央行会议、通胀数据和就业报告的密集发布，预计市场波动性将保持高位。以下是HUBFX的关键策略：

USD/JPY：随着美国国债收益率徘徊在4%附近，美元/日元依然是关注焦点。我们预计在美国CPI发布之前，市场可能会有所盘整，但整体看涨趋势仍然存在。如果通胀数据超出预期，交易者应关注突破149.00的可能性。

NZD/USD：RBNZ降息可能会进一步打压纽元，特别是在央行暗示未来可能进一步宽松的情况下。在周三决策之前，建议在任何反弹时寻找做空NZD/USD的机会。

EUR/USD：本周ECB会议纪要和欧元区数据将是EUR/USD的主要驱动因素。如果欧洲央行的基调偏鸽，加之经济数据疲软，欧元可能会进一步走弱，测试1.08的支撑位。

结论：波动性的一周即将到来 🌍📉

本周市场展望充满了关键的经济数据发布和央行会议。随着美国通胀数据、RBNZ政策变化和欧元区经济疲软的潜在变化，交易者应为市场波动做好准备。

在HUBFX，我们已做好准备迎接市场的动态变化，并将密切关注发展，为外汇、大宗商品和股票市场提供洞察和交易机会。请关注我们在本周的实时更新。

HUBFX Weekly Market Outlook: 07-11 October 2024 🌍📊 #WeeklyOutlook #FXMarkets

As we move into the second week of October, the global markets are navigating several key events that could impact trading sentiment. From Eurozone retail sales to crucial central bank meetings, traders will need to remain alert for shifts in market sentiment driven by macroeconomic data, central bank decisions, and evolving geopolitical factors.

At HUBFX, our focus this week will be on how economic trends in the US, Eurozone, Japan, and New Zealand unfold, especially as these regions face critical monetary policy decisions, inflation data, and employment reports.

Key Events to Watch This Week 📅

Here are the primary events and data releases that we are monitoring at HUBFX, as they could significantly impact FX, commodities, and equities:

Monday, 7 October:

Eurozone Retail Sales: Retail sales data will give us an indication of consumer confidence and spending trends in the eurozone, which is crucial as inflation and sluggish growth continue to weigh on sentiment. Any unexpected weakness could reinforce calls for more aggressive ECB rate cuts.

Tuesday, 8 October:

Japan Average Cash Earnings (YoY): Wage growth in Japan has been ticking upwards, with the data expected to show 3.1% YoY growth compared to 3.6% previously. For the Bank of Japan (BoJ), this is a key indicator, as wage inflation plays an essential role in hitting their inflation target. However, this figure is unlikely to trigger immediate changes in BoJ policy, as the central bank continues to monitor broader economic conditions.
RBA Meeting Minutes: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest meeting minutes could provide clues on how China’s stimulus and the ongoing adjustments to Australian monetary policy are influencing the economy. While the RBA has shifted to a more neutral stance, inflationary pressures and Chinese demand will remain focal points for AUD traders.
US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index: This is a key gauge of US business sentiment, which has remained resilient despite inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty. A strong reading could support USD strength, while a weaker-than-expected result might dampen confidence in the US economic outlook.

Wednesday, 9 October:

RBNZ Policy Decision: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to cut its official cash rate (OCR) by 50 basis points, bringing it to 4.75%. This aggressive move comes as the country grapples with slower growth and inflationary pressures. For FX markets, a cut of this magnitude could put downward pressure on the NZD, although much will depend on the forward guidance the central bank provides.
FOMC Meeting Minutes: Markets will be looking for further insights into the Federal Reserve’s next steps. With inflationary pressures easing somewhat, the minutes may provide clarity on whether the Fed is leaning toward more rate cuts in 2024. Traders will be watching for any signals of a pivot towards easing monetary policy.

Thursday, 10 October:

Japan PPI (Producer Price Index): This data will show whether input costs for producers are rising or falling, an important factor in understanding inflationary pressures in Japan. A lower-than-expected PPI reading would likely reinforce the BoJ’s dovish stance.
ECB Meeting Minutes: The European Central Bank’s meeting minutes will be closely scrutinized for any signs that the ECB might cut rates again. Given that eurozone inflation is moderating, but economic activity remains subdued, the ECB may be preparing for additional monetary easing.
US CPI and Jobless Claims: US inflation data will be one of the week’s highlights. Analysts expect a 0.1% rise in the headline CPI and 0.2% for the core measure. With the labor market still showing resilience, US jobless claims will provide further insights into employment trends. Together, these data points will help shape expectations for the Fed’s next move.
New Zealand Manufacturing PMI: This will give a snapshot of the health of New Zealand’s manufacturing sector. A further contraction in PMI could reinforce expectations of continued easing by the RBNZ.

Friday, 11 October:

UK GDP: The UK’s GDP data will offer crucial insights into the strength of the British economy, which has faced headwinds from high inflation and weak consumer confidence. A better-than-expected GDP reading could support the GBP, while weak data would add to the case for further BoE rate cuts.
Canada Labor Market Report: Canadian employment data is expected to show whether the labor market is still robust despite rising interest rates. Strong job numbers would likely support the CAD, especially given the positive correlation between the Canadian economy and oil prices.
US PPI and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: The US Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to provide more clarity on inflationary pressures at the production level, while consumer sentiment will gauge the outlook for US consumption. Both are key inputs into the Fed’s policy decisions.
BoC Business Outlook Survey: This will offer an outlook on business sentiment in Canada, which has been affected by global headwinds. A positive reading could support the CAD, particularly in the context of the Bank of Canada’s policy outlook.

Market Themes for the Week 🌍

1. Central Bank Decisions: The RBNZ in Focus

The RBNZ’s rate decision will be the centerpiece of this week’s central bank action. Markets expect a 50-basis-point cut as the central bank attempts to tackle weak growth and inflation. If the RBNZ delivers, we expect the NZD to weaken further, particularly if forward guidance signals additional cuts in the future.

At HUBFX, we believe the NZD/USD could be vulnerable to breaking below key support levels if the RBNZ adopts a dovish tone, particularly given the strength of the USD and the resilience of the US economy.

2. US Inflation and Labor Market Data

The combination of US CPI and jobless claims will be closely monitored to assess whether inflation is cooling further and if the US labor market remains robust. Any surprises in the CPI data could shift expectations about the Fed’s future rate path.

HUBFX expects that if inflation continues to moderate, the market may further price in rate cuts in early 2025, which could weigh on the USD. However, strong labor market data could counterbalance this, providing support to the dollar.

3. China’s Impact on Global Markets

China’s stimulus measures and their potential effects on global markets will continue to be a major theme. Positive developments in China’s property sector during the Golden Week holiday suggest that recent policy measures may be bearing fruit. The success of China’s recovery will have significant implications for commodities and commodity-linked currencies like the AUD and CAD.

At HUBFX, we will be watching how China’s property market recovery unfolds and whether this translates into increased demand for raw materials, supporting global growth.

HUBFX Weekly Trading Strategy ⚖️

With multiple central bank meetings, inflation data, and labor market reports on deck, volatility is likely to remain elevated in the coming week. Here are HUBFX’s key strategies:

USD/JPY: With US Treasury yields hovering around 4%, the USD/JPY remains a focal point. We expect some consolidation ahead of the US CPI release, but the overall bullish bias remains intact. Traders should look for a break above 149.00 if inflation surprises on the upside.

NZD/USD: The RBNZ’s rate cut could push the NZD lower, particularly if the central bank signals further easing. Look for opportunities to short NZD/USD on any rallies ahead of Wednesday’s decision.

EUR/USD: The ECB meeting minutes and eurozone data will be key drivers for the EUR/USD this week. A dovish tone from the ECB, combined with soft economic data, could push the euro lower, making it vulnerable to a test of the 1.08 level.

Conclusion: A Volatile Week Ahead 🌍📉

This week’s market outlook is packed with key economic data releases and central bank meetings. With the potential for surprises in US inflation data, RBNZ policy shifts, and Eurozone economic weakness, traders should brace for volatility.

At HUBFX, we are prepared for dynamic market conditions and will be closely monitoring developments to provide insights and trading opportunities in FX, commodities, and equities. Stay tuned for our real-time updates as the week progresses.