September 16, 2024 at 03:51AM
UBS says gold is its “Most Preferred” in its global asset allocation
WSJ opinion piece argues the Fed should cut by a 50bp, not 25
BoA analysts are not expecting much clarity from the FOMC this week
ICYMI – China quietly slipped out very weak data over the weekend
Reminder – there is no reference rate setting for the yuan today (CNY) – China on holidays
UBS on the data ahead of the FOMC meeting – what could trigger a 50bp interest rate cut
UK house price indicator has its biggest September m/m rise since 2016
New Zealand Services PMI August 2024: 45.5 (prior 45.2)
RBNZ says material monetary policy surprises are relatively rare.
Trump complains “What’s going on?” when his stock trading is halted
Trade ideas thread – Monday, 16 September, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
Chinese and Japanese markets are closed today, Monday, September 16, 2024, for holidays
Trading CME equity index futures? Don’t forget the rollover right about now: December 2024
Weekend – Bank of Canada governor raises prospect of faster rate cuts, FT reports
The FBI are treating the shooting incident as an assassination attempt on Trump
Trump on the Sunday shooting, says he is safe and well, will never surrender
Trump shooting (he’s unharmed) – Checking indicative FX rates – 16 September 2024
More on the Trump shooting (Trump is unharmed) – Secret Service returned fire
Gunshots fired “in the vicinity” of Trump – Trump is unharmed
Newsquawk Week Ahead: FOMC, BoJ, BoE, US & UK Retail Sales, UK, Canada & Japan CPI
Weekly Market Outlook (16-20 September)
China August: Retail sales +2.1% y/y (expected +2.5) Industrial production +4.5% y/y (4.8)
There
was ongoing chatter about the likelihood of a 50bp interest rate cut
from the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
on September 18. This weighed on the US dollar during the session
here. EUR, GBP and JPY all rose against the USD, albeit in limited
ranges.
Activity
was limited during the session with China, Japan, and South Korea all
closed for holidays. China will remain closed tomorrow, Tuesday.
–
That
summary doesn’t capture a flow of news and data from the weekend
and into the session. The big news was in US politics, where shots
were fired ‘in the vicinity’ of ex-President Trump. It appears
that Trump’s protective Secret Service detail engaged a suspected
shooter, firing shots. Trump was a good distance away and was
completely unharmed, thankfully. The FBI is treating the event as an
attempted assassination attempt on Trump, the second in 60 days.
Also
of note, on Saturday China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)
released very poor data for economic activity in August, and for home
prices slumping at a more rapid pace in August than in July (July
stabilisation measures appear to have dissipated). On the economic
data for August (more in the points above):
retail
sales were very disappointing (consumption
remains weak)
industrial
output growth was
the slowest
since March
(domestic demand remains weak)
youth
unemployment remained very high, above 17%
As
is usually the case the weak data brought calls for increased
stimulus. If the pattern of the past couple of years persists any
further stimulus will be piecemeal only, though.
On
the central bank front, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem was
interviewed by the Financial Times. He raised the prospect of quicker
cuts ahead, citing the labour market pointing towards downside risks.
USD/JPY remained heavy:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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