July 18, 2024 at 04:41AM
Federal Reserve speakers on Thursday include Logan, Daly, Bowman
Canada – Trudeau holds meeting with Mark Carney to join government
Chinese Communist Party news conference called for July 19 – Third Plenum briefing
Bank of England speaker Thursday on financial stability
Australian data: Q2 business survey shows conditions eased and forward indicators softened
Australian June unemployment rate 4.1% (vs. 4.0% expected)
PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1285 (vs. estimate at 7.2587)
Former Bank of Japan Exec Director says Bank of Japan unlikely to raise rates this month
Some USD/JPY option expiries to be aware of for 10am NY time today
Japan data – June exports +5.4% y/y (expected 6.4%) & imports +3.2% y/y (expected 9.3%)
European Central Bank monetary policy decision due today – on hold widely expected
Bank of America’s global fund manager survey – most expect first Fed rate cut in September
US President Biden has Covid
JP Morgan on oil – wary of diminished incentivization driving a spike to US $100 / barrel
Goldman Sachs – Global hedge funds reducing exposure to US stocks for 5 days in a row
ICYMI – Fed’s Beige Book eyes growth slowing, consumers tightening belts
UBS expect the Federal Reserve to cut in September, say get into attractive yield now
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Nasdaq suffers worst drop since 2022. USD/JPY pressured
Trade ideas thread – Thursday, 18 July, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
USD/JPY
was sold off in the Tokyo morning to lows under 155.50. There were no
fresh obvious catalysts to trigger the moves, although we did have
trade data for June published (not generally a market-mover). The
drop was attributed to an underlying fear of further Bank of Japan
intervention, the potential for a rate hike at the July meeting or at
least larger trimming of bond buys than is expected, and a run on
stops under the round number 156.00. There was some talk of
intervention but volumes remained light, arguing against
intervention. I also noted that an intervention effort would seem to
be not the way the BOJ is operating right now:
the
BoJ recently slammed yen crosses after US data, at a time when
USD/JPY was already falling
the
BoJ tends not to intervene in times of deep and thick liquidity, like
with Tokyo markets fully operating
From
Australia today we had the latest employment report. It was another
solid report, jobs added were more than double the central estimate.
The unemployment rate ticked up by 0.1%, with an increase in
participation also. The jobless rate remains not too far from
five-decade lows. AUD/USD popped a few points higher after the data
and managed to sustain the small rise as I post.
Apart
from the yen major FX was subdued.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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