ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: RBNZ leans more dovish NZD drops

2024 年 7 月 10 日
-FCHFX, 人民币

July 10, 2024 at 04:19AM

Federal Reserve speakers on Wednesday include Bostic and Musalem

New Zealand rate pricing implies 25bp rate cut for October vs. 16 before RBNZ statement

NZD/USD drops after the RBNZ statement – hints of a closer rate cut

RBNZ leaves it cash rate on hold at 5.5%, as expected

China June 2024 CPI +0.2% y/y (expected +0.4%) and PPI -0.8% y/y (expected -0.8%)

People’s Bank of China sets yuan reference rate at 7.1342 (vs. estimate at 7.2711)

ECB member and Bank of France Governor Villeroy is speaking on Wednesday

Quick sketch of where to for the USD under Biden and Trump

Japan PPI (June 2024) +0.2% m/m (expected +0.4) and +2.9% y/y (expected +2.9%)

Euro zone wage rises quickened in June

Old news, but file this away just in case – how to get 5 more rate hikes from the Fed

“Fed has no business lowering rates now … lost touch with economic reality”

Goldman Sachs on US, “absolutely a soft landing”, Fed rate cut cycle to begin in September

100bp of BoE cuts to come, leaves GBP “asymmetric risk to the downside than to the upside”

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 9 Jul: Powell’s testimony keeps easing door open for Sept.

Oil – private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil draw larger than expected

US equities edge higher as Nvidia scores another gain

Trade ideas thread – Wednesday, 10 July, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

The
two items of most interest during the session here were the inflation
data from China and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy
Review for July.

The
RBNZ dropped a dovish bombshell. I explained it at the time (see bullets above):

***

From the RBNZ statement:

Committee
expecting headline inflation to return to within the 1 to 3 percent
target range in the second half of this year

If
that’s the case why wouldn’t we expect a rate cut soon? I think the
RBNZ agree, judging by this:

The
Committee agreed that monetary policy will need to remain
restrictive. The extent of this restraint will be tempered over time
consistent with the expected decline in inflation pressures.

The
TL;DR version of all this is ‘if inflation goes down, rates go down’.

***

The
interest rate and FX market agreed. NZD/USD dropped away after the
statement and rates markets moved to price in nearer-term rate cuts.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand next meet in August (14th), markets
are close to pricing in a 40% chance of a 25bp rate cut at that
meeting.

From
China we had June inflation data. Headline CPI came in at 0.2% y/y
vs. the 0.4% expected and 0.3% in May. While it appears China is in
danger of flirting with a deflationary CPI again the core rate
offered some sign that’s not the case. Core came in at 0.6% y/y,
unchanged from May. The PPI, of course, remained in deflation. The
disappointment on the CPI has reignited calls for People’s Bank of
China easing. The yuan weakened on the session. USD/CNY hit its
highest (weakest for CNY) since November 14 last year.

Japanese
wholesale
inflation data
showed an acceleration
in
June. The
PPI (aka the corporate
goods price index (CGPI)) rose 2.9% y/y. The
yen-based import price index increased 9.5% y/y
in June, from 7.1% in May, a sign of how much impact the weak JPY is
inflating
the price firms
charge each other for imported raw material.

NZD/USD
fell on the day, as did the yuan and yen.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

伦敦作为国际金融中心之一，是世界上最大的外汇市场和除香港以外最大的离岸人民币市场，其自由贸易政策、法律体系完善等优势成为企业进入国际市场的最佳跳板。通过英国伦敦公司合派HUBFX开立英欧美加收款账户，企业可以实现更低成本的贸易资金快速流转，更快打通欧美与内地市场的贸易路径。不过，对于许多中小贸易企业来说，开户难、账户不稳定的问题始终难以解决。自行申请英欧美加银行账户，不仅流程繁琐、耗时长，且需要现场面签审核，开户条件非常苛刻。此外，随着CRS协议全球大范围实施以及国际监管政策愈加严格，许多英欧美加银行也加强了对开户公司的资格审查，这大大提高了企业的开户门槛。

合派HUBFX 可为企业在线开立英国、欧盟多币种收款账户，开户快捷，支持美元、欧元、英镑、日元、港币、离岸人民币等38个币种的收款需求，足不出户轻松满足企业安全快捷的收款需求。与传统方式不同，合派HUBFX与多家国际知名银行合作，秉承高标准合规与监管要求，为企业在线开立账户，无需亲赴英/欧/美/加，提交相关资质材料并审核通过后即可快捷开立，企业账户名称即为企业实名，无任何前缀，账号信息由企业专属，解决了外贸企业急于快速开户并进行跨境贸易收付款的迫切需要。汇率透明，安全高效整个过程中无开户、账户管理等额外费用，通过自有高新技术搭建的底层外汇交易引擎，企业可在HUBFX管理平台获得实时透明汇率，全流程自动化操作，每一笔资金及交易状态一目了然，方便企业高效进行资金管理，优化成本。此外，合派HUBFX拥有英国巴克兰银行的保障（Safeguard）客户资金账号，外贸收付款安全可靠。