HUBFX观点：中国假期后重启市场，经济刺激备受期待 🌍💹 #中国经济 #市场展望

2024 年 10 月 7 日
-人民币

2024年10月8日，中国结束了为期一周的假期，重新开放市场，市场的目光聚焦于定于上午10点召开的国家发展和改革委员会（NDRC）新闻发布会。预计会议将讨论“系统性实施一系列增量政策，稳步促进经济上行趋势和结构性改善，并持续提升发展态势”。市场对刺激措施的期待很高，全球市场正密切关注此举可能带来的连锁反应，尤其是在股票市场、外汇市场和大宗商品市场方面。

本文将探讨中国市场重启的潜在市场影响、预期的刺激政策，以及更广泛的市场情绪，特别是在中东紧张局势和美国通胀预期的背景下，如何影响全球投资者。

中国市场重启：刺激预期成为焦点 💼🇨🇳

在为期一周的假期后，中国市场重新开放，市场期待已久的发改委新闻发布会备受关注。投资者希望会议能带来更多的刺激措施，以应对中国经济放缓的问题。近年来，中国经济面临着房地产市场下滑、消费者需求疲软和外部贸易压力，这使得市场普遍呼吁更强有力的政策支持。

关键预期：

增量政策：预计发改委将出台新政策，重点在于维持经济上行趋势和推动结构性改善。这可能包括稳定房地产市场、加大基础设施投资和促进消费者支出等措施。
市场反应：近期，中国股市已经经历了显著反弹，HK50自9月低点以来上涨了近40%，主要受到先前刺激措施预期的推动。今天的会议结果将决定这种势头是会继续还是出现回调。

HUBFX认为，中国市场假期后会如何反应至关重要。历史上，中国的政策公告对国内外市场都有重大影响。然而，鉴于中国股市在此次会议前的强劲反弹，如果刺激措施不及预期，市场可能面临一定的回调风险。

全球市场对中国发展的谨慎等待 🌐

随着中国的重启，全球市场情绪依然谨慎。交易员正密切关注中国的最新动向，同时风险情绪在多个资产类别中呈现疲软态势。避险货币表现强劲，而高贝塔资产如股票和大宗商品则相对疲软。以下是HUBFX对各大市场的观察：

外汇市场：

避险货币领涨：由于投资者寻求避险，日元（JPY）、美元（USD）和瑞士法郎（CHF）表现优异。相反，高贝塔货币如澳元（AUD）、**纽元（NZD）和加元（CAD）**表现疲软，部分原因是市场对全球增长和中国大宗商品需求的担忧。
美元/人民币（USD/CNY）：随着中国市场重新开放，美元/人民币汇率将成为市场的焦点。中国人民银行将今日的中间价设定为7.0794，符合市场预期。如果今天宣布的刺激措施超出预期，可能会对人民币造成压力，因为更宽松的货币政策可能会拖累人民币汇率。

大宗商品市场：

油价继续上涨：尽管大多数市场情绪谨慎，原油仍保持上升趋势，受中东地缘政治紧张局势和中国需求预期的支撑。WTI原油价格上涨至77.33美元，单日上涨近3美元。作为全球能源的主要消费国，中国任何支持经济增长的新刺激措施都可能进一步推高油价。
金属价格下跌：另一方面，铜和铁矿石等基础金属价格走低，反映出市场对中国需求的持续担忧。投资者正在等待具体的政策措施，以评估对工业大宗商品的潜在影响。

股票市场：

全球股市谨慎交易：除中国股市上涨外，全球股市普遍呈现谨慎情绪。标普500指数下跌了0.8%，而欧洲股指期货显示开盘走低。虽然高盛将其标普500指数的12个月目标上调至6300点，主要基于强劲的美国经济前景，但短期内市场面临的风险仍对情绪产生负面影响。

HUBFX认为，如果中国的刺激措施足够强劲，可能会进一步提振与大宗商品相关的货币和股票。然而，考虑到其他宏观风险（包括美国通胀和中东局势），短期内投资者应保持谨慎。

美国通胀和地缘政治风险继续主导市场情绪 🔥💸

除了中国的政策动向，全球市场还面临中东局势和美国通胀预期等关键风险。这些因素可能在中国重启之后继续影响市场情绪。

中东紧张局势：

油价和再通胀交易：以色列与伊朗之间的持续紧张局势已推动油价上涨。市场正在定价更多的潜在石油供应中断，这可能加剧全球通胀压力。HUBFX注意到，当前的油价上涨也反映了市场从“无衰退”转向“再通胀”的叙事。这对股市来说不一定是好消息，因为通胀预期上升可能推动债券收益率上升，并对风险资产造成压力。

美国通胀数据：

关键数据发布：本周即将公布的美国9月消费者价格指数（CPI）预计将显示0.1%的整体增长，核心指标预计增长0.2%。这些数据将成为交易员寻找美联储下一步行动线索的关键。如果数据高于预期，可能会引发对利率长期维持高位的担忧，进一步加大股市面临的挑战。

HUBFX认为，油价上涨和持续的通胀压力将使美国国债收益率保持高位，短期内可能继续支撑美元。

投资者的关键关注点 💡

随着中国重新开放并准备宣布最新的经济政策，HUBFX重点关注以下几大要点：

1. 中国刺激措施的影响：

发改委能否提供足够的刺激政策以维持中国股市的涨势，还是今天的公告会令市场失望？如果出台强有力的刺激措施，可能会进一步提振大宗商品、亚洲股市和与大宗商品相关的货币。

2. 外汇市场的波动：

根据中国的刺激规模，美元/人民币可能出现波动。此外，在风险情绪较弱的情况下，日元和瑞士法郎等避险货币可能继续表现良好。

3. 大宗商品前景：

原油受地缘政治风险支撑，可能进一步上涨。然而，除非刺激措施显著提振工业活动，否则金属价格可能继续承压。

4. 美国通胀数据：

随着美国通胀数据的临近，任何超出预期的数据都可能改变美联储的政策路径，影响美元和美国股市。投资者应为通胀预期主导市场情绪的情况下的高度波动做好准备。

结论：中国重启或将决定全球市场的走势 🌍💹

今天中国市场的重启以及备受期待的发改委新闻发布会，可能成为决定本周全球市场走势的关键。尽管市场对刺激措施抱有很高的期望，全球投资者在应对宏观风险时应保持谨慎，特别是在地缘政治紧张局势和美国通胀的背景下。

HUBFX将密切关注今天的事件，我们预计随着市场消化中国的最新政策举措，外汇、大宗商品和股票市场将出现显著波动。

HUBFX Market Analysis: China Reopens with Stimulus Hopes Amid Global Uncertainty 🌍💹 #ChinaStimulus #MarketOutlook

On October 8, 2024, all eyes are on China as it reopens after a week-long holiday, with the market keenly awaiting a key press conference from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) scheduled for 10 AM Beijing time (0200 GMT). The event is expected to cover “the systematic implementation of a package of incremental policies” designed to boost economic growth and provide structural improvements. With expectations riding high, global markets are bracing for potential ripple effects across equities, FX, and commodities.

This blog will explore the market implications of China’s reopening, the anticipated stimulus measures, and how broader market sentiment is shaping up as risk factors, including Middle East tensions and US inflation expectations, come into play.

China Reopens: Stimulus Hopes in the Spotlight 💼🇨🇳

After a week-long break, Chinese markets are returning with much anticipation around the NDRC’s press conference. Investors are hopeful that the announcement will bring fresh stimulus measures aimed at lifting China’s flagging economy. In recent months, China has faced headwinds from a slowing property market, weaker consumer demand, and external trade pressures, prompting calls for more aggressive policy support.

Key Expectations:

Incremental Policies: The NDRC is expected to outline new policies focusing on sustaining an upward economic trend and promoting structural improvements. This could include measures to stabilize the property market, enhance infrastructure investment, and boost consumer spending.
Market Reaction: Chinese equities have already experienced a substantial rally in recent weeks, with the HK50 rising nearly 40% since its September lows, driven by earlier stimulus expectations. Today’s announcement could determine whether this momentum continues or if we see a correction.

At HUBFX, we’re watching to see how the market reacts post-holiday. Historically, China’s policy announcements have had a significant impact on both domestic and global markets. However, given the strong rally in Chinese equities leading up to this event, there’s also the risk of a pullback if the stimulus measures fall short of expectations.

Global Markets Cautiously Await Chinese Developments 🌐

The global market sentiment remains cautious as traders await China’s next steps. Risk sentiment has been souring across multiple asset classes, with safe-haven currencies outperforming while riskier assets, such as high-beta currencies and equities, are seeing weakness. Here’s what we’re seeing across major markets:

FX Market:

Safe-Haven Currencies Lead: The JPY, USD, and CHF are leading gains as investors seek refuge amid uncertainty. In contrast, high-beta currencies like the AUD, NZD, and CAD are lagging, partly due to concerns over global growth and commodity demand from China.
USD/CNY: As Chinese markets reopen, the USD/CNY pair will be closely watched. The PBOC set the reference rate at 7.0794, in line with expectations. If today’s announcement includes stronger-than-expected stimulus, we could see some downside pressure on the yuan, as looser monetary conditions might weigh on the currency.

Commodities:

Oil Continues to Rally: Despite the cautious tone in most markets, crude oil continues its upward trend, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations of stronger demand from China. WTI crude is trading at $77.33, up nearly $3. With China being a major consumer of energy, any new stimulus that supports economic growth could further boost oil prices.
Metals Slump: On the other hand, base metals like copper and iron ore are trading lower as concerns over Chinese demand persist. Traders are waiting for concrete policy measures to gauge the potential impact on industrial commodities.

Equities:

Cautious Trading Across Global Equities: Apart from the positive movement in Chinese equities, global stocks have been trading with a cautious bias. The S&P 500 dipped by 0.8%, and European equity futures indicate a negative open. While Goldman Sachs has raised its S&P 500 target to 6300 for the next 12 months, driven by a strong US growth outlook, near-term risks are still weighing on sentiment.

At HUBFX, we believe that China’s stimulus measures, if substantial, could provide a much-needed boost to commodity-linked currencies and stocks. However, with other macro risks, including US inflation and Middle East tensions, traders should remain cautious in the short term.

US Inflation and Geopolitical Risks Continue to Drive Sentiment 🔥💸

Beyond China, global markets are also contending with key risks from the Middle East and US inflation expectations. These factors are likely to influence sentiment even after China’s reopening.

Middle East Tensions:

Oil and Reflation Trade: The ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran have already driven up oil prices. Markets are pricing in further potential disruptions in oil supply, which could exacerbate inflationary pressures globally. At HUBFX, we’ve noticed that oil’s current rally is also driven by a shift in narrative from “no recession” to “reflation.” This is not necessarily good news for equity markets, as rising inflation expectations could push bond yields higher and weigh on risk assets.

US Inflation Data:

Key Data Releases: The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, expected later this week, is forecast to show a 0.1% increase for the headline number and a 0.2% rise for the core measure. These figures will be closely watched by traders looking for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next move. Any upside surprises could reignite concerns about higher-for-longer interest rates, which would add to the challenges facing equity markets.

At HUBFX, we expect the combination of higher oil prices and persistent inflation to keep US Treasury yields elevated, which could continue to support the USD in the near term.

Key Takeaways for Traders 💡

As China reopens and prepares to announce its latest economic policies, here are the key things HUBFX is focusing on:

1. China’s Stimulus Impact:

Will the NDRC deliver enough to maintain the momentum in Chinese equities, or will today’s announcement fall short of market expectations? A strong package of measures could further lift commodities, Asian equities, and commodity-linked currencies.

2. FX Market Movements:

Watch for potential moves in USD/CNY depending on the scope of China’s stimulus. In addition, safe-haven currencies like the JPY and CHF could continue to outperform in a risk-off environment.

3. Commodities Outlook:

Oil remains supported by geopolitical risks and could see further gains if China’s reopening drives demand. However, metals could remain under pressure unless stimulus measures significantly boost industrial activity.

4. US Inflation Data:

With US inflation data on the horizon, any surprises could alter the Fed’s policy path, impacting both the USD and US equities. Traders should be prepared for heightened volatility as inflation expectations remain a key driver of market sentiment.

Conclusion: China’s Reopening Could Set the Tone for Global Markets 🌍💹

China’s return to the markets today, combined with the highly anticipated NDRC press conference, could be pivotal for setting the tone in global markets for the remainder of the week. While stimulus hopes are running high, global investors should be cautious, given the broader macro risks from geopolitical tensions and US inflation.

At HUBFX, we’re closely monitoring today’s events, and we expect significant volatility across FX, commodities, and equities as traders digest China’s latest policy moves.