2024年10月3日，美国9月ISM服务业指数超出预期，达到54.9，远高于市场预期的51.7。这表明美国服务业的扩张速度快于预期，增强了市场对美国经济韧性的信心。这一数据发布后，美元走强，成为当天外汇市场的领跑货币。

市场反应：

• 美国工厂订单：8月工厂订单下降0.2%，略低于市场预期的持平表现（0.0%）。尽管工厂订单疲软，但服务业的强劲表现抵消了部分负面影响。
• 加拿大服务业PMI：加拿大S&P全球服务业PMI降至六个月低点，显示出该国服务业面临的挑战加剧，尤其是在就业数据大幅下滑的情况下。
• 大宗商品市场：WTI原油价格上涨3.74美元，达到73.84美元，受益于利比亚供应中断和以色列可能打击伊朗石油设施的消息。与此同时，黄金价格小幅下跌1美元，至2656美元。

HUBFX的观点：

美国ISM服务业指数的意外上涨表明，尽管面临通胀和利率压力，美国经济仍然具有相当的韧性。美元因此受益，并成为主要货币中的领跑者。HUBFX认为，如果未来几周的经济数据继续表现强劲，市场可能会进一步预期美联储在短期内不会采取过度宽松的货币政策，美元有望继续保持强势。

其他重要市场动态：

• 美联储动态：美联储的Goolsbee表示，零售商在码头工人罢工前提前囤货，这可能会对未来几个月的库存数据产生影响。
• 地缘政治风险：以色列即将对伊朗进行报复性打击的消息继续发酵，可能会对全球油价和市场风险情绪产生重大影响。

外汇市场展望：

随着服务业的强劲表现和美联储政策路径的不确定性，HUBFX建议关注未来的非农就业数据和CPI数据，这些数据将为判断美联储的货币政策提供更多线索。如果数据继续表现强劲，美元可能会保持强势，而风险货币（如英镑和加元）可能会面临压力。

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总结：

美国9月ISM服务业数据的强劲表现为市场提供了更多关于美国经济的正面信号，推动美元走强。但随着地缘政治紧张局势加剧，市场风险情绪依然脆弱。HUBFX将继续密切关注美国未来的关键经济数据和全球地缘政治风险，以判断外汇市场的进一步走势。

HUBFX Americas FX News Wrap: ISM Services Surges Higher 📈 #USDStrength #ISMData

On October 3, 2024, the US ISM Services PMI for September surprised markets by jumping to 54.9, well above the expected 51.7. This unexpected strength in the US services sector signals that the US economy is showing more resilience than anticipated, particularly in its largest sector, services. Following the release, the US dollar firmed, extending gains against major currencies.

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Market Reaction:

• US Factory Orders: Factory orders for August fell by 0.2%, missing the expectation of 0.0%. While the decline in factory orders could indicate weakness in the manufacturing sector, the stronger-than-expected services PMI overshadowed this concern, boosting overall confidence in the US economy.
• Canada’s Services PMI: In contrast, Canada’s S&P Global Services PMI fell to a six-month low, reflecting a slowdown in the Canadian services sector. The drop in employment within the sector was particularly concerning, pointing to potential challenges ahead for Canada’s economy, which could weigh on the CAD.
• Commodity Markets: WTI crude oil prices surged by $3.74, reaching $73.84 per barrel, driven by supply concerns from Libyan outages and geopolitical risks linked to potential Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities. Gold saw a minor dip of $1, settling at $2656 as the US dollar strength and rising Treasury yields dampened demand for the safe-haven asset.

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HUBFX’s View:

The stronger-than-expected ISM services report paints a picture of a resilient US economy, even as other sectors like manufacturing show signs of weakness. This solid performance in services—coupled with the prospect of ongoing economic strength—has bolstered the USD, which was the best-performing major currency of the day.

HUBFX believes this data will strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to hold off on further rate cuts in the immediate term. If future data continues to reflect robust growth, the market may start to price in a longer period of higher interest rates, which would likely provide further support for the USD.

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Key Market Events:

• Fed Commentary: Fed official Austan Goolsbee highlighted that US retailers had stockpiled goods ahead of the dockworker strike, suggesting inventory dynamics could play a role in upcoming economic data.
• Geopolitical Tensions: Israeli media, along with Sky News Arabia, reported that Israel is preparing a military response to recent developments, potentially targeting Iranian oil infrastructure. This has escalated geopolitical tensions, contributing to the rally in oil prices.

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FX Market Outlook:

With the ISM services report underscoring economic resilience in the US, the USD continues to benefit from a more optimistic growth outlook compared to other major economies. HUBFX expects the market’s attention to shift towards upcoming non-farm payrolls and CPI data for further clues on the Fed’s policy direction.

Near-Term Strategies:

• USD/JPY: The pair gained as US 10-year Treasury yields rose 6.5 bps to 3.85%. We expect further upside potential if yields continue to rise. Watch for the pair to test the 149.00 level, particularly with US economic data coming in stronger than expected.
• GBP/USD: The GBP lagged on the day, weighed down by soft UK economic data. Continued weakness in UK fundamentals could push the pair lower, especially if the USD maintains its momentum.
• USD/CAD: With Canada’s services PMI falling and employment declining, there could be further downside pressure on the CAD, particularly if Canadian labor market data later this week disappoints.

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Commodities in Focus:

• Oil: The surge in oil prices reflects growing concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East. With OPEC output declining by 390k barrels per day due to outages in Libya, and geopolitical risks rising, oil prices could see further gains. Traders should keep a close watch on developments in Israel and Iran, as any military actions targeting oil infrastructure could drive prices even higher.
• Gold: The dip in gold prices was relatively minor, but continued strength in the USD and rising bond yields could weigh on the metal in the near term. However, geopolitical risks could provide some support if tensions escalate in the Middle East.

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HUBFX’s Conclusion:

The surge in US ISM services data supports the narrative of a stronger-than-expected US economy, lifting the USD across the board. However, geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, continue to introduce volatility into the markets. Traders should remain cautious as key data releases, such as US non-farm payrolls and CPI, will be crucial in determining the next moves for the USD and broader market sentiment.

As always, HUBFX will keep you updated on real-time developments and provide insights on how to navigate these shifting market conditions.