美国就业数据与全球货币市场的潜在走向：美联储前景与 INR 的短期波动

Indian Rupee maintains the bearish bias amid prolonged US-Iran stalemate, hawkish Fed risk

The job gains have been much higher than the estimated breakeven rate lately. The unemployment rate fell to an unrounded 4.29% vs 4.33% in the prior month.

Following the NFP report, the market fully priced in a rate hike by year-end with the total tightening standing at 26 basis points right now. We can expect the Fed to drop the easing bias at the upcoming meeting, but the focus will be mainly on the dot plot and forward guidance. Even though a rate hike is now fully priced in, if the Fed endorses the market pricing, it will effectively confirm that the bias has shifted to tightening and might trigger another rally in the greenback.

This week, the most important event is the US CPI report due tomorrow (barring a surprising breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations). The question for markets is now when and how many rate hikes the Fed might deliver by year-end. Upside surprises would be seen as more hawkish and will likely give the US dollar a boost. Conversely, lower-than-expected figures should alleviate some of the hawkish fears and might trigger a pullback in the short term.

INR:

On the INR side, the Rupee got a slight boost from the RBI decision as traders interpreted it as more hawkish, with RBI Governor Malhotra warning that if inflation were to become generalized, the bank would need to raise interest rates.

The gains were short-lived, though, as the very strong US NFP number boosted the US dollar across the board. The escalation between Israel and Iran has also weighed on the Rupee as oil prices jumped, but the quick de-escalation helped avoid a breakdown.

In the short term, the Rupee has been closely correlated with oil prices, so positive developments on the US-Iran front should keep giving the INR a boost. Conversely, extended stalemate or further escalations will likely keep weighing on the currency and push it into new record lows.

The hawkish Fed risk is now also a major driver. Therefore, strong US data or a more hawkish-than-expected FOMC will put further pressure on the Rupee as the US dollar will likely extend gains.

In the big picture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar, so the dip-buyers will likely look for opportunities around strong technical levels to keep pushing the USD/INR pair into new highs.

USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

On the daily chart, USDINR is consolidating just below the key 96.00 resistance. The sellers will likely continue to step in around the resistance with a defined risk above it to keep targeting new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in for a rally into new record highs.

USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 4-hour chart, we can see more clearly the rangebound price action. We got a selloff on Friday on a slightly more hawkish RBI decision but the losses were eventually erased following the very strong NFP number and the Israel-Iran escalation. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US PPI report.

The post Indian Rupee maintains the bearish bias amid prolonged US-Iran stalemate, hawkish Fed risk appeared first on HUBFX | Global Accounts | FX Risk Management.

Publisher: HUBFX

Indian Rupee maintains the bearish bias amid prolonged US-Iran stalemate, hawkish Fed risk

Note: This blog post is prepared for readers seeking a concise market-oriented view on USD/INR dynamics amid the current macro backdrop, including US monetary policy expectations, oil price influences, and geopolitical risk factors.

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