Navigating the Current Landscape of European Financial Markets

欧洲市场不惧政治局势，但能坚持多久？

2024年12月3日下午2:33

金融市场按照自己的节奏运作：这不仅仅是一个优美的短语，而是现实的反映。在过去的两年中，市场崩溃的理由虽然众多，但乐观情绪依然存在，并且至今不减。尽管许多分析人士声称标准普尔500指数“超买”，但这一乐观趋势依旧持续。

欧洲市场的情况也颇为相似：尽管面临诸多挑战，德国的DAX指数再次创下历史新高。这种市场行为为何存在差异呢？深层次的基本面或许更为光明。例如，在德国，由于生产外包至海外，消费者信心受到打击。自2019年以来，该国由于战略决策失误，如关闭核电站和过度依赖出口导向的增长，已损失了约20%的工业增长潜力。

与此同时，法国面临的问题并非完全是经济层面的，尽管预算赤字等问题确实存在，更多的是政治不稳定，甚至可以被视为危机。法国政府面临的不信任动议可能在本周三就会受到表决，而Barnier政府有可能在本周末之前宣告倒台。

因此，法国政府债券的风险溢价已达到12年来的最高点。然而，欧元对美元汇率以及总体市场似乎并没有把这些负面发展考虑得过于严重。过去一个月，法国CAC 40指数仅下跌1.8%，明显低于DAX指数的3.8%以上的涨幅，尽管如此，市场中并没有显现出恐慌的迹象。

当前，欧盟还面临着能源危机的威胁，特别是在美国对俄气银行实施制裁后，购买来自俄罗斯的天然气变得困难甚至不可能，俄罗斯仍然是欧盟的主要供应商之一。自然气期货价格的飙升在所难免。除非在12月20日之前找到解决危机的办法，否则价格的上涨可能会持续，对家庭和企业构成风险。此外，寒冷的冬季预报进一步使情况复杂化，这将驱动天然气的消费增加。简而言之，另一场要袭击欧盟经济的完美风暴正在酝酿之中。

更为严峻的是，欧盟内部仍在挣扎于地缘政治危机，如今特朗普又威胁加征新关税。尽管如此，市场似乎并未表现出太多的担忧。如此大的冷漠情绪究竟为何？这可能与普遍的“风险偏好”情绪有关。换句话说，如果美国市场开始修正，欧洲市场很可能会随之下行。

在这个复杂的政治经济环境中，欧洲市场的韧性令人瞩目，但它能否在未来继续保持这种态势，还有待观察。
December 03, 2024 at 02:33PM
Financial markets operate on their own timeline, a concept often mentioned but seldom understood in its entirety. Over the past two years, various factors have threatened to instigate a market crash, yet optimism continues to prevail.

This optimism persists today, despite analysts suggesting that the S&P 500 is ‘overbought.’ Similarly, the situation in Europe reflects a cautious but unwavering confidence, as evidenced by the DAX hitting an all-time high once again.

The divergence in market behavior can be attributed to the underlying fundamentals. In Germany, consumer confidence is increasingly undermined by the offshoring of production. The country has lost approximately 20% of its industrial growth potential since 2019, a decline exacerbated by strategic missteps including the closure of nuclear power plants and an over-reliance on export-led growth.

In France, while the economic situation features challenges such as a massive budget deficit, the real issue at play appears to be one of political instability. The French government is currently facing a motion of censure, which may lead to its collapse as early as Wednesday. This looming governmental crisis has caused the risk premium on French government bonds to reach a 12-year high.

Yet, despite these adversities, the EUR/USD currency pair and broader markets remain largely unfazed. The CAC 40 index has only seen a modest decline of 1.8% in the past month—significantly undervalued compared to the DAX’s 3.8% increase. Notably, the absence of panic suggests a continued indifference to these pressing issues.

However, the challenges for the EU do not end there. An impending energy crisis is brewing, exacerbated by US sanctions against Gazprombank, which complicate gas purchases from Russia—one of the bloc’s major suppliers. As anticipated, natural gas futures in Europe have surged, and unless a viable solution emerges by December 20, the escalating prices could pose significant risks to households and businesses alike.

The forecast for a cold winter only adds to these complications, likely increasing gas consumption. In summary, the EU may be facing another perfect storm that could severely impact its economy. Compounding these issues is the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, coupled with new tariff threats from former President Trump.

Despite the looming challenges, markets seem remarkably indifferent. This pervasive ‘risk-on’ sentiment suggests that if a correction were to occur in the US markets, European counterparts would likely follow suit, but for now, the resilience displayed is noteworthy.

In conclusion, while the financial landscape remains precarious and filled with potential pitfalls, the enduring optimism in the markets may yet prove to be a double-edged sword.

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