欧央行的Vujčić：我认为十二月的决定不会太困难
2024年12月4日中午12:23
在近日的会议上，欧洲央行（ECB）执行委员会成员Vujčić对即将到来的12月货币政策决策表示乐观。他表示，ECB内部对于未来的方向达成了一致，预计在接下来的会议中也不会有太大的变化。
Vujčić预测，央行将继续采取逐步降息的政策，而非大幅度调整利率。在最近的通胀报告中，通胀的上升主要是由于基数效应，即能源价格的逐步消退所导致。针对未来经济形势的预测，预计下周发布的新预报将显示2025年下半年通胀将大幅下降。
他进一步强调，目前采用逐次会议的方式进行政策调整是合适的选择。改变货币政策不仅应对美国的关税政策，还需考虑欧盟的反应。然而，他也指出，贸易战最有可能导致更高的通胀压力。
Vujčić的发言显示，市场对ECB在12月会议上做出25个基点的小幅降息的预期非常强烈，目前的市场定价显示出这次降息的概率高达约93%。他淡化了关于此次决策可能产生重大争论的可能性，进一步支持了将在12月采取清晰的25个基点降息决策的观点。
总的来说，Vujčić的观点再次确认了ECB政策制定者的当前倾向，体现出市场对未来货币政策走向的信心。随着经济形势的变化，如何灵活应对成为了各方关注的重点。
On December 4, 2024, at 12:23 PM, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) recent communications have emphasized a clear and cohesive stance as we approach the upcoming meetings. ECB representatives consistently express confidence that the organization will maintain a measured approach to interest rates, favoring gradual cuts rather than dramatic shifts this month.
An important factor influencing the ECB’s decision-making is the latest inflation report, which indicates that the recent uptick in inflation is primarily attributed to base effects — notably, the fading impact of energy prices. Analysts anticipate that new forecasts will reveal a significant decline in inflation figures by the latter half of 2025.
The ECB’s current strategy of proceeding through a meeting-by-meeting evaluation is deemed appropriate given the prevailing economic conditions. This approach resonates particularly in light of external factors such as the United States tariffs and the implications of the European Union’s responses to these tariffs. As noted, the looming potential of a trade war may contribute to increased inflationary pressures within the region.
In a recent discussion, ECB policymaker Vujčić minimized expectations for a contentious debate surrounding the December decision, suggesting that the consensus among policymakers leans towards a straightforward 25 basis points (bps) reduction. Current market evaluations indicate a strong probability of this move, with roughly 93% likelihood assigned to a 25 bps cut.
For an in-depth understanding of Vujčić’s perspective, the full transcript of his comments can be accessed. Engaging with these insights can provide clarity on the ECB’s direction as we move forward.
This analysis is based on observations by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com. For further developments, refer to our original post titled “ECB’s Vujčić: I don’t think December decision will be that difficult”, which was published on HUBFX | Global Accounts | FX Risk Management.
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