Anticipating a Robust November Jobs Report: Insights from BofA

BofA对11月美国就业报告的预期

2024年12月03日下午07:23

美银美林（BofA）预计11月非农就业人数将强劲反弹，主要受到此前影响10月就业数据的临时性因素逆转的驱动。尽管如此，失业率预计会小幅上升，这反映了劳动参与率的正常化。

关键点：

薪资增长：

11月非农就业人数预计将增加24万，与10月仅增加1.2万相比，显著提升。

此次反弹主要是由于临时因素的补偿，比如米尔顿飓风和波音罢工影响了10月份的薪资数据。

失业及劳动参与：

因10月的飓风影响，劳动参与率预计将恢复0.1%，达到62.7%。

该恢复有望带动失业率上升0.1%，至4.2%。

薪资及工作时长：

预计平均小时工资（AHE）将环比上涨0.3%。

平均每周工作时间预计将保持在34.3小时。

结论：

美银美林预计11月的就业报告将显现出强劲的增长，这种增长是受临时干扰正常化的驱动，同时也表明了工资的稳定增长。这些指标在年末接近时展现了劳动市场的韧性。

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本文由Adam Button撰写，发布于www.forexlive.com。

本篇文章最早出现在HUBFX | 全球账户 | FX风险管理。
On December 3, 2024, Bank of America (BofA) projected a significant rebound in nonfarm payrolls for the month of November. This optimistic outlook is primarily attributed to the reversal of temporary factors that adversely affected employment levels in October. Despite expectations of a slight uptick in the unemployment rate, the overall labor market is poised for strong performance as the year draws to a close.

Key Points:

Payroll Growth:

BofA forecasts an increase of 240,000 nonfarm payrolls in November, a remarkable surge when compared to October’s modest gain of just 12,000. This rebound is largely viewed as a payback for the temporary disruptions experienced in the previous month, notably due to Hurricane Milton and the Boeing strike, which collectively suppressed payroll figures.

Unemployment and Labor Participation:

The labor force participation rate, which was negatively impacted by the hurricane in October, is expected to recover by 0.1%, reaching 62.7%. This increase in participation is anticipated to accompany a 0.1% rise in the unemployment rate, bringing it to 4.2%.

Wages and Work Hours:

In terms of wage growth, average hourly earnings (AHE) are forecasted to rise by 0.3% month-over-month. Additionally, average weekly hours are expected to remain stable at 34.3 hours, indicating a steady work environment for American workers.

Conclusion:

Bank of America’s expectations for a robust jobs report in November reflect the normalization following temporary disruptions that affected employment levels. With stable wage growth and a resilient labor market, these indicators suggest a positive trajectory as we approach the end of the year.

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This analysis reflects insights from Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The original article, BofA: What we expect from the November US jobs report on Friday, first appeared on HUBFX | Global Accounts | FX Risk Management.

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