Analyzing the Recent Movements of USD/JPY: A Technical Perspective

USD/JPY反弹逐渐获得动力

2024年12月04日 08:36AM

在周一测试100日移动平均线（红线）后，美元对日元（USD/JPY）在昨天的交易中再次面临此一关口。这一动向源于在韩国总统尹锡悦的军事法令风波后，日元的购买欲望上升。随着戏剧性事件的平息，USD/JPY逐渐回升，买方稳住了这一关键技术水平上的反弹。

今天，该货币对的反弹更为有力，目前上涨0.5%，至约150.39。然而，与周一的反弹不同，最新的反弹显示出货币对短期趋势可能正在发生转变。从日线图来看，买方依然占主导地位，小时图也进一步反映出他们的信心：

市场的微幅上扬使买方突破了100小时移动平均线（红线），将短期趋势再次转为中性。现阶段价格维持在该均线之上，但仍低于200小时移动平均线（蓝线）。

目前，USD/JPY在未来几周内还有许多问题需要解决。美联储和日本银行（BOJ）是当前需要关注的两大重要因素。美联储似乎肯定会实施25个基点的降息，而日本银行的加息安排在此阶段仍然不明朗。

这篇文章由Justin Low撰写，来源于www.forexlive.com。
On December 04, 2024, we observed intriguing dynamics in the USD/JPY currency pair. After testing its 100-day moving average on Monday, the pair experienced a notable response in trading yesterday. This movement can be attributed to increased demand for the Japanese yen, following a series of political developments surrounding South Korea’s President Yoon and concerns regarding martial law. As the geopolitical tension subsided, USD/JPY rebounded, with buyers supporting the currency above this critical technical threshold.

As a result, today’s trading session has shown a stronger upward trend, with USD/JPY climbing approximately 0.5% to around 150.39. What sets this bounce apart from the one observed earlier in the week is a potential shift in the near-term bias of the pair. Observations on the daily chart indicate that buyers are firmly maintaining their positions, while the hourly chart suggests increased conviction among market participants.

The recent price action reflects this momentum, as buyers have successfully pushed past the 100-hour moving average, indicating a transition to a more neutral bias in the near term. Currently, prices are situated above this moving average but remain below the 200-hour moving average, suggesting a pivotal phase in trading.

Looking ahead, it is clear that USD/JPY has significant challenges to navigate in the upcoming weeks. The Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) are two major entities influencing market sentiment. Speculation indicates that the Fed is likely to implement a 25 basis point rate cut, while the possibility of a rate hike from the BOJ remains uncertain at this point.

In summary, the recent movements in the USD/JPY pair underscore the intricate interplay of technical indicators and broader economic factors. Keeping a close eye on developments from both the Fed and the BOJ will be crucial in forecasting the pair’s next steps.

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