Key Economic Events to Watch on December 4, 2024

今天的主要事件概览

2024年12月4日，全球金融市场将迎来一系列重要经济数据和会议，这些因素可能会对市场走势产生显著影响。

在欧洲时段，我们将公布欧元区和英国的最终服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）。通常，这些最终读数不会对市场产生较大波动。然而，接下来的美国时段将是市场关注的焦点。

美国时段的关键事件：

13:15 GMT/08:15 ET – 美国11月ADP就业人数变动

市场普遍预计ADP报告将显示新增就业人数为15万人，而上月为23万人。上一次的报告超出预期，引发了市场对加息预期的鹰派再定价。尽管ADP在预测非农就业数据（NFP）方面的准确性并不高，但近期市场对劳动力市场数据的敏感性使得这一数据成为潜在的市场影响因素。尽管如此，鉴于劳动力市场的一系列指标，市场在此基础上进一步调整利率降低预期的可能性不大。本月的主要事件仍将是12月11日的美国消费者价格指数（CPI）数据发布。

15:00 GMT/10:00 ET – 美国11月ISM服务业PMI

市场预期美国ISM服务业PMI将为55.6，低于之前的56.0。近年来，该调查并未提供明确的信号，自2022年以来一直处于波动状态。然而，上次报告的数据显示经济活动的回升，标志着由于美联储的放松政策以及即将上任的更为商业友好的政府，市场对放松监管、减税等政策的期待持续上升。

中央银行官员发言安排：

09:00 GMT – 英国央行行长贝利（中立投票者）
09:00 GMT – 欧洲央行官员齐波罗内（鸽派投票者）
13:30 GMT/08:30 ET – 欧洲央行行长拉加德（中立投票者）
13:45 GMT/08:45 ET – 美联储穆萨勒姆（中立非投票者）
15:30 GMT/10:30 ET – 欧洲央行行长拉加德（中立投票者）
18:45 GMT/13:45 ET – 美联储主席鲍威尔（中立投票者）

随着今天的重要事件的临近，市场参与者需密切关注数据发布和官员发言的动态。这些信息将可能为投资决策提供关键依据，并影响未来的市场走向。

（本文由Giuseppe Dellamotta撰写，来源于www.forexlive.com）
As we approach the trading day on December 4, 2024, the Forex market is poised for significant developments influenced by key economic indicators and central bank communications. The European session will open with the release of final services PMIs for both the Eurozone and the UK. While these final readings are typically not major market movers, they set the stage for the day’s events.

However, the real attention will shift to the American session where several key indicators and speeches are anticipated. At 13:15 GMT (08:15 ET), the US November ADP Employment Change report will be released. Analysts expect this report to come in at 150K, a sharp decline from the previous figure of 233K. Despite the ADP’s inconsistent track record in predicting the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), its influence on market sentiment has been notable. Following the last report’s unexpected upside surprise that led to a hawkish adjustment in interest rate expectations, the upcoming data may similarly affect the market dynamics. Nonetheless, an in-depth look suggests that substantial repricing of rate cut expectations is unlikely based solely on labor market data at this juncture, with the focus remaining on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) set to be released on December 11.

At 15:00 GMT (10:00 ET), the US ISM Services PMI is scheduled for release, with expectations set at 55.6, slightly below the prior reading of 56.0. The ISM Services PMI has exhibited a somewhat tepid performance, providing limited directional signals over the past two years. However, the last report saw an unexpected jump to a new cycle high, suggesting a resurgence in economic activity backed by the Federal Reserve’s easing policies and an impending business-friendly administration.

In addition to these economic data points, several central bank speakers will be addressing the public throughout the day. Notably, the Bank of England’s Governor Andrew Bailey and the European Central Bank’s Filippo Cipollone will speak at 09:00 GMT. Furthermore, ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to address the market multiple times throughout the day, highlighting her neutral stance as a voter in monetary policy deliberations. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will also make a significant appearance at 18:45 GMT (13:45 ET), which is anticipated to be one of the day’s critical moments.

In conclusion, market participants should prepare for increased volatility and potential liquidity shifts driven by today’s economic releases and commentary from influential central bank officials. Staying informed will be key to navigating the trading landscape effectively.

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