UBS says China expects an intensifying trade war if Trump wins 2024 election

2024 年 6 月 16 日
-FCHFX, 人民币

June 16, 2024 at 10:59PM
UBS economist Ning Zhang says China is bracing itself for a trade war with the US under a second Trump presidency.

Local media (gated) carry the UBS analysis:

In an interview with The Australian during a visit to Australia, Mr Zhang said China was bracing itself for a trade war with the US that could harm its economy if Donald Trump won the November election.

And China’s concern about a potentially more hostile relationship with a Trump administration was one of the factors behind its strategy of having a more friendly relationship with other countries such as Australia, New Zealand and the European Union, he said.

“The bottom line is that China wants to make more friends,” he said. “Better bilateral trade has benefits for both sides.”

Mr Zhang said Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on goods from China were significantly higher than the measures he took as president and could potentially cause much more harm to the Chinese economy.
Instead of imposing additional tariffs of 25 per cent on $US250bn ($380bn) of Chinese exports to the US as he did last time, Trump is now threatening to impose a tariff of 60 per cent on all imports from China.
Mr Zhang estimated that this could cut Chinese economic growth – which UBS predicts will come in at around 4.9 per cent this year – by more than one percentage point in 2025.

Just for clarity, the points above are from an interview with the UBS analyst, not the Chinese Premier.

—

Premier Li Qiang visited New Zealand and Australia. During his visit to Australia Li and Australian Prime Minister Albanese
will co-chair the ninth China-Australia Annual Leaders’ Meeting and jointly attend a China-Australia CEO Roundtable Meeting.

Premier Li Qiang

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

伦敦作为国际金融中心之一，是世界上最大的外汇市场和除香港以外最大的离岸人民币市场，其自由贸易政策、法律体系完善等优势成为企业进入国际市场的最佳跳板。通过英国伦敦公司合派HUBFX开立英欧美加收款账户，企业可以实现更低成本的贸易资金快速流转，更快打通欧美与内地市场的贸易路径。不过，对于许多中小贸易企业来说，开户难、账户不稳定的问题始终难以解决。自行申请英欧美加银行账户，不仅流程繁琐、耗时长，且需要现场面签审核，开户条件非常苛刻。此外，随着CRS协议全球大范围实施以及国际监管政策愈加严格，许多英欧美加银行也加强了对开户公司的资格审查，这大大提高了企业的开户门槛。

合派HUBFX 可为企业在线开立英国、欧盟多币种收款账户，开户快捷，支持美元、欧元、英镑、日元、港币、离岸人民币等38个币种的收款需求，足不出户轻松满足企业安全快捷的收款需求。与传统方式不同，合派HUBFX与多家国际知名银行合作，秉承高标准合规与监管要求，为企业在线开立账户，无需亲赴英/欧/美/加，提交相关资质材料并审核通过后即可快捷开立，企业账户名称即为企业实名，无任何前缀，账号信息由企业专属，解决了外贸企业急于快速开户并进行跨境贸易收付款的迫切需要。汇率透明，安全高效整个过程中无开户、账户管理等额外费用，通过自有高新技术搭建的底层外汇交易引擎，企业可在HUBFX管理平台获得实时透明汇率，全流程自动化操作，每一笔资金及交易状态一目了然，方便企业高效进行资金管理，优化成本。此外，合派HUBFX拥有英国巴克兰银行的保障（Safeguard）客户资金账号，外贸收付款安全可靠。